Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in pre-post aspects of the Patriotic War
The results of nationwide survey conducted by the Social Research Center from August 24 to September 9, 2020, revealed that the majority of respondents who are confident that the war will begin in the near future, the Azerbaijani state and people expressed readiness for war .
The absolute majority of population unequivocally believes that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will be resolved militarily under the leadership of President, Supreme Commander-in-Chief Ilham Aliyev and this fact finds its expression. More than half of the population- 56.1% believe that the war will start soon. Respondents from Upper Karabakh are the most likely to believe that the war will start in the near future (43.7% “believe very much”, 25% “believe the main”). The absolute majority of respondents (94.4%) said that Azerbaijan was ready for war. Regardless of their participation in the first Karabakh war, the confidence of groups was fully prepared for the war. 94.8% of respondents said that the Azerbaijani people are fully prepared for war. 96.8% of respondents said that the Azerbaijan people, 96.8% of those who are currently in military service and 94.5% of those who are not responded. Regardless of the region where they live (frontline or non-frontline), the defendants said they were almost ready for war at the level of the Azerbaijani people (93.7% and 96.4%)
98% of the population highly appreciates the strength of the Azerbaijani army. 98.2% of those living on the border with Armenia and on the line of contact in Nagorno – Karabakh appreciate the strength of Azerbaijani army while for other regions this figure is 97.9%. 93.1% of respondents believe that only the current leadership of the country will resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict militarily, and this fact is directly reflected in the liberation of Azerbaijani lands today as a result of the strong will, rational and far-sighted will of President Ilham Aliyev finds confirmation. "Do you believe that only the current leadership will resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict militarily?" Those who answered "yes" to the question were more widespread among those living on the border with Armenia and on the line of contact with Nagorno-Karabakh than those living in other regions (90.5% and 77.9%). "Do you believe that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will be resolved militarily only under the leadership of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief?" The same indicators were observed for both population groups (83% and 83.2%), regardless of their participation in the Karabakh War I. Turkey (99.8%), Pakistan (99.6%) and Ukraine (93.2%) are the countries that will support Azerbaijan in the event of a possible war.
The most preferred option was all directions (87.5%) and for Armenia the “military” direction (82.4%). People living in the frontline region expect economic, humanitarian and information support for our country than residents of the non-frontline region. While more than half of the population (53.8%) see Russia's obstruction of the war as the main obstacle to delaying the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the second factor is the interest of major powers (US, Russia, France) in resolving the problem (48.1%). ) It turns out that even today, the inadequate positions of these states on the current situation once again confirm these results. Respondents also believe that the non-implementation of UN resolutions on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict (42.8%), as well as the strong activity of the Armenian Diaspora abroad (27.1%) delay the resolution of the problem. In Upper Karabakh, 47% of respondents think that "non-implementation of UN resolutions on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict" has delayed the resolution of the problem - 47%. 89.6% of respondents said that with the outbreak of the Karabakh War II, Nagorno-Karabakh and 7 surrounding regions will be liberated. 30.5% of respondents share the possibility that this war will eliminate the "defeated people" syndrome, and now the victorious image of Azerbaijan has become a source of pride for every citizen of our country, both inside and outside the country.
About half of the population (44.5%) consider it important to strengthen more the Azerbaijani military in terms of resolving the conflict. The scale and intensity of counter-offensive operations have clearly overturned all counter-stereotypes about the strength and professionalism of the army. 42.9% of respondents suggested that Azerbaijan start direct talks with Russia, and 37.4% said that Azerbaijan should increase the number of foreign partners.
69.8% of respondents think that the Azerbaijani army proves to be stronger than the Armenian troops in response to the provocation of the Armenian armed forces. It appears as the main result of the retaliatory blows to the Armenian provocation, which our army was able to prevent enemy provocations in time (61.8%) and defeat the enemy alone in the war (59.6%). All three facts can be considered as an important result of the intensive military operations of the Azerbaijani army today for territorial integrity. Residents of the conflict zone said that the Azerbaijani army was able to prevent enemy provocations in a timely manner (64.5% and 59.9%) in response to the provocations of the Armenian armed forces, as well as the Armenian army (70.3% and 69.4%). (60.7% and 58.9%) think more than the people of the non-frontline region that they are able to defeat the enemy alone. While 56.8% of respondents attributed Armenia's attack on the border with Azerbaijan on July 12, 2020 to the enemy's desire to strike at international projects in the region (Baku-Tbilisi-Jeyhan, Baku-Tbilisi-Kars), 46.2% said Armenia deliberately provoked Azerbaijan. Respondents also see Armenia's desire to make up for its April defeat as one of the reasons for the Tovuz provocation. Against the background of the conditions created after the Tovuz battles, they noted that a military solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is inevitable. This opinion is dominated by 50.2% of respondents with higher education. One of the expected changes is that geopolitical isolation will lead to a political crisis in Armenia, which will lead to their military failure (35.5%). The results of the survey in this area coincide with the current situation in Armenia.
The main part of the population (72%) considers the situation after the events of July 12 as a historic opportunity to solve the problem. Family members in the military (53.8% totally agree, 18.7% mostly agree) agree more or less than the other group that the current situation is a historic opportunity to solve the problem. A significant proportion of respondents, to one degree or another, more or less agree with the other group that the situation after the July 12 events is a historic opportunity to address the problem.
A number of respondents said that the Azerbaijani army should attack Nagorno-Karabakh and other fronts in response to the provocation of the enemy in the Tovuz region. (79.4%) Moreover, a remarkable proportion of the population (78.1%) said they would feel more or less safe during the war. 49.9% said they would feel "completely safe" and 28.2% said they would feel "partially safe". 83.3% of men and 72.8% of women said they would feel more or less safe during the war. Those aged 18-25 (82.4%) and 26-35 (84.7%) said they would feel more secure during the war than other groups.
91.2% of the population “Do you /your family members go to the front to take part in the war?” responded "yes" to this question. Along with men (96.8%), the majority of women said that they and their family members (85.5%) would go to the front to take part in the war. An absolute majority (more than 90%) of all age groups said they would go to the front to take part in the war. A relatively low rate was observed in the age group over 65 (88.1%), which in fact can be considered a very high result in this age category. In the return of the lands lost by Azerbaijan in the first Karabakh war with the last battles, 73.1% of respondents based the factor of people's unity, and 52.1% of respondents based the factor of strong army building and military policy of the Azerbaijani state.
Regarding Russia's position on propaganda in the Tovuz region, 86.6% of respondents believe that Russia is more interested in the military base in Armenia. 73.3% of those attributed Russia's position to its unwillingness to face Turkey in the conflict.
Although 52.6% of respondents believe that the toughest bill in Congress recognizing the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh for the first time in US history will have a positive impact on resolving the conflict, 32.2% believe it will have no effect. 81.8% of the population rated the OSCE Minsk Group's efforts to resolve the conflict as "bad". During the war, the absolute majority expressed confidence in the direct support of the Turkish army to our country, which is 94.9%.
Most of the respondents believe that the Turkish army provides direct military support to our country during the war because we are a friendly and brotherly country. (90.8%) Those who do not believe in the military support of the Turkish army to our country attribute this to the fact that Turkey does not want to face Russia (63.9%) and open an additional front (48.5%).
87.6% of respondents praised the President's personnel reforms in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 91.3% of those who have refugee status and 87.2% of those who do not have refugee status appreciate the President's personnel reforms in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. As for the changes in the foreign policy of Azerbaijan that will lead to changes in Azerbaijan's foreign policy, it will further strengthen the country's international prestige. 43.3% will have a positive impact on the military-political process on the Nagorno-Karabakh front. 32.1%. noted. During the active military operations in Tovuz, more than half of the population supported the Azerbaijani state (48.4%) and the army (48.6%). Men were more supportive of the Azerbaijani army (59% of men, 37.8% of women) and the state (58.6% of men, 37.6% of women) during active military operations in Tovuz than women. The age groups of 18-25 (56.7%) and 26-35 (57.8%) were more supportive of the Azerbaijani state than other age groups.
51.6% did not support the state and 51.4% did not support the army. 57.2% of the population shared patriotic opinions on social media. In the second place, those who defend our state against Armenians on social networks with 34.8%. In the spirit of patriotism, more students shared their opinions on social networks - 83.8%. The second and third places in this direction are occupied by housewives (71.8%) and those working in the public sector (63.9%). Students also defended our state against Armenians on social networks - 46%. Those from the frontline (42.9%) provided more food aid to soldiers serving in military units. For those living in the non-frontline region, this figure is 15.2%. People living far from the conflict zone attended the funerals of martyrs more than in the frontline - 32% and 17.6%.
The main reasons given by those who do not support the state and the army of Azerbaijan are compliance with quarantine rules (48.5%), and the current situation is second (health, etc.) (28.8%).
59.3% of respondents believe that the people's march in support of the state and the Supreme Commander-in-Chief showed support for the army. 53.1% of respondents believe in unity against the enemy, and 52.5% believe in people's-army-state unity.
At the end of the July 14 rally, 24% of respondents first mentioned a police-civilian confrontation as one of the goals of a group of people entering parliament. According to 22.7% of respondents, the aim was to challenge the 1990s scenario by creating unrest within the government.
78.9% of the population receives information about what happened on the front during the war on television. The most watched channel during the war is KHAZAR TV. 77% of the population receives frontline information from this channel. The second most cared for is ATV (58.9%). The third is AZTV with 46.7%. The next channels are REAL TV (36.8%), ITV (26%) and Space TV (23.3%). 44.3% of respondents trust frontline news obtained from social media. 83.4% of respondents rely more on information they receive on television. During the fighting along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border Tavush border and Tovuz region, television channels constantly contribute to the state's information policy on 12 July,2020.
According to the research of the SRC, social media is the second largest source of information, with 47.2% of the population using this source to get information about what is happening on the front. Among the social networks, Facebook ranked first with 58.4%. YouTube (38.9%) ranked second, and Instagram ranked third with 37.5%. 44.3% of respondents trust frontline news obtained from social media. After television and social networks, the third largest source of information for the population in wartime is the people around them (17.8%). 35.9% of respondents trust the information they receive from people around them. 58.8% of respondents agreed with the opinion that "social networks provide information about what is happening on the frontline more quickly rather than television." 50% of those who think that they provide information about what is happening on social media compared to TV.