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The dynamics of socio-economic situation in Azerbaijan: survey among 1,073 respondents

09.07.2021

The Social Research Center conducted a survey among 1,073 respondents.


The Social Research Center conducted a telephone survey among 1,073 respondents on several topics, from June 25 till July 5 in 2021. The confidence interval was 95.0%; the margin of error was 3%. 


The questions of the survey involve three areas:
- Current socio-economic situation and expectations
- Expectations from the AZN/USD rate and assessment of the Central Bank's current exchange rate policy
- Opinions on and expectations from the results of the parliamentary elections in Armenia  

Demographic

The telephone survey (CATI) was conducted among 1,073 randomly selected respondents covering all economic regions. The middle age group and people with secondary education were relatively more prevalent. The share of housewives and pensioners was 20.1% and 14.9%, respectively. The share of people with a monthly income of AZN 251-500 is the highest among income categories (42.5%).  

Attitude to the results of the parliamentary elections in Armenia


The respondents were asked two questions about the results of the early elections in Armenia. They  see two main reasons for Nikol Pashinyan's victory in the elections: the Armenians did not vote for revanchists to avoid the war (48.1%) and the Armenians wanted to restore relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey (37.4%). One in five people had difficulty answering this question. 
The main expectation from Pashinyan’s continuation of premiership is that Armenia will be forced to recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan (60.9%). One in four people (25.4%) believe that Pashinyan’s premiership will ensure compliance with the terms of the November 10 Statement and the opening of the Zangazur corridor.    

Socio-economic situation

The results of the survey suggest negative trends in the financial situation of the people areas in recent months. 


While almost nine out of ten people (84.4%) have seen an increase in consumer (food) prices in recent months, more than half of respondents (50.9%) have spent more than 40.0% of their household expenditure on food over the past year. said to some extent increased. In recent months, 14.3% of respondents did not observe any change in consumer (food) prices.


Only 6.3% of respondents' overall family income has increased in 2021. As the monthly income of one in three families (31.4%) decreased, the cost of food decreased by only 4.3%. For a significant proportion of respondents, (60.2%) there was no change in family income in 2021.   


36.1% of respondents expect electricity (electricity), 28.7% gas and 25.6% fuel tariffs to go up in 2021. One-third of respondents (29.3%) do not expect any increase.   

Trust in the national currency and expectations from the exchange rate  

31.5% of the respondents who have additional funds (savings) keep it in manats. 

Interestingly, the majority of the respondents (61.7%) said they would keep it in manats if they had savings. The second currency chosen by the respondents in this regard was the dollar (31.5%).   

10.9% of respondents have no expectations about the AZN/USD exchange rate in the future, whereas a larger portion of the sample (58.7%) believes that the AZN/USD exchange rate will remain unchanged. 17.6% perceive the probability of devaluation high. One third of respondents (45.3%) rated the current exchange rate policy of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan either “good” or “mostly good”. 21.3% held an opposite view. A significant part of the sample was either unaware of (21.6%) or had difficulty answering (11.9%) the question on current exchange rate policy.