Trust Index 02
ENTRY
Taking into account the fact that President Ilham Aliyev attaches great importance to public opinion on the recent revolutionary reforms in Azerbaijan, the Social Research Center has launched a new layout of sociological surveys in 2019. These surveys are the first in the country in terms of quarterly (3-month) monitoring of public opinion on reforms allow for more rapid monitoring of the dynamics of social processes and the assessment of public opinion.
The report covers the first quarter of 2020 (January-March). In addition, the main purpose of this analytical report, based on a sociological survey, is to evaluate the internal and external development of the president during the period under review.
The purpose of this analytical report, based on a sociological survey, is to highlight the main points of the President's domestic and foreign policy, socio-political and socio-economic processes in the country. At the same time, it is to revive the general picture by quickly assessing the attitude of the society to the processes taking place in the legislative, executive and law enforcement systems, to create conditions for referring to public opinion as a reliable source in making relevant decisions.
This survey focused on the historical facts of the political calendar, which allows following the multifaceted activities of the head of state in both domestic and foreign policy also, events of special importance, widely covered in the official chronicle, as well as in the local and foreign mass media.
In January-March 2020, there were an appropriate number of memorable events in the activities of the President of Azerbaijan, which became the agenda of international public opinion. These events not only focused on the activities of President Ilham Aliyev in the field of domestic and foreign policy to strengthen statehood but also ensured a further increase in trust and confidence in him. In this regard, let us recall the main events targeted by public opinion on foreign and domestic policy in the survey:
In the field of foreign policy:
On February 15, President Ilham Aliyev attended and addressed the 56th meeting of the prestigious Munich Security Conference, which has been held in Germany since 1963 and is considered a decisive platform in the field of international stability. In all the speeches of the President the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which is a more important issue for Azerbaijan, and the protection of national interests have an important place in the opinion of the country's public. According to the general assessment reflected in public opinion, the implementation of President Ilham Aliyev, the guarantor of Azerbaijan's sovereignty.
Because of his foreign policy, our state has the necessary geopolitical status and weight in a constantly changing world can provide. The President has mobilized all available resources and potential for this.
The President's participation in the Davos World Economic Forum, in particular, the panel speech on "Strategic Outlook: Eurasia" and the traditional meetings of the President with the influential economic and business world were highlighted as defining the sustainability of economic reforms in Azerbaijan as a strategic goal. It is also important to emphasize the importance of attracting foreign investors to the country's economy and deepening cooperation initiatives. At the same time, the President's participation in bilateral and multilateral talks in Davos has the exceptional strategic importance in terms of clearly outlining the main outlines of Azerbaijan's geo-economics policy and foreign economic policy priorities.
The official visits of the administrations of Turkey and Turkmenistan to our country in the first quarter of 2020, as well as the official visit of the President to Italy, interviews with foreign media (Russian Channel 24), were in the spotlight in terms of assessing foreign policy priorities.
In the field of domestic policy:
At the discussion dedicated to the results of the previous year on January 13, 2020, the President's final speech set goals for the current year. Also, the President discussed the dynamics of socio-economic development of the country in comparison with the South Caucasus, especially Armenia - all parameters - domestic policy, military power, military building, key of macroeconomic indicators, GDP, social security, wages and pensions, global competitiveness report, giant energy and transport projects, sports, analyses and indicators that were unequivocally superior based on the facts.
President Ilham Aliyev noted the successful start of 2020, especially for the non-oil sector, with foreign investors investing in two major projects - the construction of the largest wind and solar power plants in the region. The first quarter of 2020 can also be defined as a very dynamic period for the dynamics of economic development in the country. At the meeting dedicated to the results of 2019, the President's statement "The World Bank has included Azerbaijan in the list of 20 most reformist countries, which is a great achievement" shows the scale of expectations for 2020 in this direction, both quantitatively and qualitatively.
The conference dedicated to the results of the first year of implementation of the State Program on Socio-Economic Development of the Regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan in 2019-2023 had special importance for defining the main priorities of regional development, as well as developing clustering for the development of the non-oil sector. On March 10, in his speech at the first sitting of the Parliament of the Republic of Azerbaijan of the 6th convocation, President Ilham Aliyev announced a new historical stage of political reforms in Azerbaijan. The President's speech was a strategic document with a conceptual content reflecting the deeper aspects of political reforms, the formation of a new political configuration in Azerbaijan, the improvement of the political system, and the strengthening of the multiparty system in Azerbaijan identified the main vectors. The president reiterated that there is no alternative to reforms and that there is a determination to carry out economic and political reforms in the country simultaneously. Starting from the last March of the first quarter of 2020, the coronavirus pandemic has been on the world and Azerbaijani agenda and is still on the agenda. From the first quarter of the year, the President's speeches and messages on the irreversibility of reforms at the opening of strategically important social facilities have become a tradition.
On March 3, President Ilham Aliyev attended the opening of the Goranboy Central Hospital. He informed the public about the control of the situation in Azerbaijan, all the strategic directions of operational and crisis management caused by the pandemic. Also, the opening of the Agstafa Agrarian Industrial Complex, Gazakh Lime Plant, Shamkirchay Water Treatment Plant Complex in the first quarter was part of this and was important in terms of the President's live contacts with the people.
The last month of the first quarter of 2020 is defined by unprecedented global economic risks for the world economy. The situation is flexible and decisive anti-crisis requires the highest-level management. From this point of view, we can evaluate the Presidential Decree of March 19, 2020, as a strategic decision based on sufficiently accurate determinations of the current situation and the strategic contours aimed at minimizing possible negative trends in the economy. The working groups established in four complementary directions and the tasks set before them serve as a serious basis for the anti-crisis strategy in terms of ensuring the stability of the country's economy and its resistance to external influences, as well as the protection of economic development prospects.
In addition, The President gave an extensive interview and made speeches at the opening of the Hovsan Housing Complex, the second project of the State Agency for Housing Construction, on March 24, and at the opening of "the Yeni Klinika" medical facility in Baku on March 28. This activity of the head of state is of great importance in the country, as well as being one of the first in the country in the field of crisis management and social communication, measures taken in connection with the pandemic and public awareness.
The President emphasized the importance of developing the social and health infrastructure during his presidency, as well as the precautionary measures against such force majeure emphasized. It is no coincidence that the world already emphasizes "There are countries that have officially applied to study the experience of Azerbaijan in the fight against coronavirus."
The first quarter of 2020, especially January-February, can be defined by positive macroeconomic indicators against the background of threats from global economic shocks. Thus, during this period, the gross domestic product increased by 2.8%, the non-oil sector by 6.7% and the non-oil industry by 21.7%. Inflation was only 2.8%, and the income of the population was 9%, i.e. incomes exceeded inflation.
The survey also showed that Azerbaijan is able to overcome the crisis facing the whole world on its own. Thus, while many CIS countries appeal to international organizations and countries for help, Azerbaijan is able to cope with the crisis with its own resources. Public opinion shows that the correct policy of the head of state, the adoption of preventive decisions and the application of enforcement mechanisms have conditioned the effectiveness of public administration. Another important issue, unlike many heads of state in the province or socially isolated, is that the President is among the people at the most difficult moment, sharing his views, conveying the most accurate information to the public, on the one hand to ensure morale, and on the other hand in the global information war. serves to enlighten by repelling attempts to use. According to public opinion, the President said "National unity and solidarity!" Against the threat of the coronavirus. He was able to mobilize all our people to be optimistic and vigilant by chanting the slogan.
The President's acceptance of economic policy managers in the first quarter of 2020 in a working manner, ensuring accountability for the work done and giving strategic decisions and instructions on the spot, should be commended in terms of establishing top-level communication with the public on reforms. This management style creates a high level of confidence and trust in terms of both consumer behavior and the formation of medium and long-term priorities for the business sector.
Because of the President's meetings in the first quarter of the year, not only in the capital but also in the frontline regions, near the line of contact, public opinion praised the work of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief on military construction and strengthening the National Army.
In his public speeches, the President said that compared to the leading countries of the world where the pandemic is raging, the Azerbaijani leadership "looks back 20-30-50 years" and the huge reforms in public administration in recent years have already borne fruit. Thus, the pandemic was a very serious test for the new political elite, which is facing challenges such as crisis management and flexible social communication in the information society, and new staff has shown that it is ready to cope with this test. Public opinion has shown the correctness of personnel and management reforms in this regard. It is believed that the new staff is determined to respond to challenges such as agile transformation to global threats.
In the President's domestic policy, personnel reform, and the organization of reporting/transparency receptions for newly appointed or existing public officials is a new format that proves that the reforms are in focus. In the first quarter of 2020, within the new format, the President appointed the Minister of Labor and Social Security, the Chairman of the Board of the Baku Transport Agency, the Chairman of the State Committee for Urban Planning and Architecture, young executives appointed in Ismayilli and Neftchala, etc. accepted. The public opinion poll revealed that the population is also sensitive to these perceptions.
Principles of the Survey Methodology
Choices of Respondents:
1212 respondents took part in the public opinion poll.
The public opinion poll is based on the cluster selection method. In total, 101 clusters were selected at random from selected addresses across the country, and in each of them, the first 12 people who responded positively to participate in the survey were included in the main selection. A person close to the time of the survey in the family was selected to participate in the survey. The results of the survey were analyzed taking into account the 95% confidence interval and the statistical error coefficient of 3%. The survey was conducted in March 2020.
Regions. The survey was conducted in the following economic and geographical regions of Azerbaijan: Baku, Absheron, Guba-Khachmaz, Mountainous Shirvan, Sheki-Zagatala, Aran, Ganja-Gazakh, Nagorno-Karabakh, Lankaran. The survey covered the entire country, except the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and the occupied territories. At the same time, the ethnic Azerbaijani population of the occupied regions was also involved in the survey.
The method of conducting the survey
A face-to-face interview was used in the survey. Modern technology in conducting the survey and SurveyToGo software was used. This program has many advantages in terms of monitoring fieldwork in a wide range of geographies, obtaining online observation of the survey process, and obtaining reliable information.
Data processing and analysis
At the end of the opinion poll, the data collected for each bracket was entered into the database and analyzed by a special program SPSS - Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. From a correlation analysis to find a statistically significant relationship between variables, different socio-demographics X², t and ANOVA tests were used to compare the variables between the groups. In addition, the latent factor Cronbach's Alpha was calculated to assess the reliability of the exploitative factor for determination. Due to rounding, the percentages in the charts may differ by only 100%.
The structure of the questionnaire
The questionnaire consisted of 18 main and 4 demographic questions. The questions were mainly in the following areas:
- In various directions of the President performance appraisal;
- Speeches of the President in the international arena on the aggressive position of Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict;
- Attitude of the population to personnel changes in local executive authorities;
- Dynamics of public confidence and trust in the President.
DISTRIBUTION OF DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS OF RESPONDENTS
1212 respondents took part in the survey. The survey is based on the principle of random sampling, all categories of the population are represented in terms of socio-demographic indicators.
STATISTICAL AND ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE SURVEY RESULTS
The reforms launched in the country in 2019 covered both the improvement of the social welfare of the population and personnel reforms, as well as the legislative and executive branches of government. One of the key factors in making all these reforms more successful and sustainable is the strong will shown by the President. In order to study the attitude of the respondents to the President and all three branches of government (legislative, executive, and judicial), the reliability of the respondents to these bodies was studied. The majority of respondents (94.7%) said they trusted the President. Those who say "I trust the President" make up the absolute majority of respondents (90.8%).
Confidence in other branches of government is lower than in the President. Thus, 57.4% of respondents are members of parliament, 46.2% trust the local executive power, and 49% trust the court. Among these three branches of government, the lowest reliability is in the executive branch. Another noteworthy point is that one in four respondents (24.8%) had difficulty expressing their opinion on whether they trusted the executive authorities, and some more (26.3%) had difficulty expressing their confidence in the courts. The high level of credibility of the parliament compared to other branches of government may be due to the reorganization of the composition of this legislature and the expectations of society in this regard, as well as the "credit of trust." Local self-government by SRC
The results of the survey on the institutions of the executive branch of the government show that the effectiveness of the activities of local executive authorities, their accessibility, usefulness in solving problems are not so highly valued by the respondents. As can be seen from these results, less than half of the respondents trust the local executive power to some extent (24.7% “fully trust”, 21.5% “mostly trust”).
In the first quarter of 2020, within the framework of the President's anti-corruption policy, activities continued to implement new criteria of public service and to ensure the rule of law in this regard. Illegalization of local executive authorities by the State Security Service (SSS) and the prevention, arrest, and support of these steps by citizens, and the fact that people have an expectation of the sustainability of this process, really indicate the need for more intensive reforms in local executive structures. From about all four respondents the lack of trust in the judiciary and the difficulty of some (26.3%) respondents to comment on it indicate the need for radical judicial reform.
This result suggests that citizens trust the President more than other institutions. The absolute majority of respondents said that the President's army building and modernization of the armed forces (96%) and foreign policy (95%). Presidential activity in the field was highly appreciated. The vast majority of respondents assessed the activities of the President in the field of economic development, regulation of agriculture and labor relations (88.3%), personnel reforms (87.9%), and social protection (87.9%) positively. Respondents' positive assessment of the President's activities in the field of personnel reforms and social protection is the same in total. However, many respondents (64.9%) rated personnel reforms “very good”. The majority of respondents (85%) evaluated the President’s activities in the fight against corruption positively.
As can be seen, the public's assessment of the leader's performance in military and political matters is higher than in socio-economic and anti-corruption issues. In the survey "President's activities in public opinion" conducted by STM in October 2019, the respondents also assessed the activities of the President in various areas. These new results, over the past few months, the attitude of the population to the activities of the President in various fields has improved. The number of those who evaluate the President's activity in various directions as "very good" has increased dramatically. In the comparative diagram below (Figure 3), the difference in direction is clearly visible. ANOVA's analysis shows that the absolute majority of those who have completed secondary and lower education, and the majority of those with higher education, appreciate the President's performance in all areas.
From the point of view of employment, the President's activities in all areas are highly valued by those working in the public sector, especially those working in the public sector, retirees, as well as housewives. Compared to these categories, this figure is relatively low among the unemployed. As for the differences by region, foreign higher policy rates were recorded in the Aran, Absheron, and Upper Karabakh economic regions.
The same picture was observed in the field of social protection. More positive views on personnel reforms were detected in Aran, Upper Karabakh, and Mountainous Shirvan. The President on economic development, agriculture, does the work and regulation of labor relations in the Aran region is highly appreciated.
The highest positive evaluation of the President's activities on the anti-corruption policy was given in Mountainous Shirvan, followed by Aran and Upper Karabakh. The question of army building and its improvement in the Aran region also had a higher rating. Although lower than in the above-mentioned regions, the Ganja-Gazakh economic region also has a mostly positive economy.
It should be noted that 16.4% of respondents do not know about it. Those who do not know about this speech when you look at the demographics, it is clear that women predominate.
Incomplete and complete secondary education is more ignorant than those with higher and vocational education. In comparison Baku and Absheron, people unaware of this speech prevail in the regions contain. Young people are more ignorant than middle-aged and older people. This result highlights the issue of the effectiveness of the media, which is the main means of constantly informing the population. In terms of providing such important information to citizens in a correct, complete, understandable language, not only at the time of the incident but also after it, to constantly inform, to inform the public is important. In the first three months of 2020, the country's leadership adequately responded to many events, especially in the two global issues. The reaction was positively assessed by citizens. In general, the first quarter of 2020 is characterized as a period of rich inflexible and purposeful strategic decisions taken by the President in the socio-economic direction.
The principal outlines of a large-scale action plan based on strong political will to ensure the stability of the country's economy, resistance to external influences, and protection of economic development prospects have been strictly controlled by the President.
It is in these areas that the respondents' attitudes to preventive measures (preventive policy strategies) were studied according to specific priorities. Citizen opinion on exchange rate policy is very important as one of the directions of economic policy that is widely pursued by the general public in the economic context in times of crisis. Thus, a significant part of respondents (75.9%) consider the targeted measures taken to keep the exchange rate stable against the background of volatility in world oil markets to be significantly effective.
The analysis gives us reason to say that the assessment of effectiveness in this area differs depending on the sector in which the respondents work.
Thus, while respondents working in the public sector evaluate the state policy in this area very effectively, the representatives of the private sector mainly evaluate it as effective (F (6) = 3.593, p <0.01). If we pay attention to the age structure of the respondents responding in this context, we can easily see that the older segment (especially the group of respondents over the age of 50) values currency stability more than respondents under 25 (F (4) = 5.469, p <0.01).
Based on this finding, we can say that households are positive about the issue. It is noteworthy that only one in five respondents had difficulty expressing an opinion in this regard.
The results of the comparative analysis of respondents who have difficulty answering this question in terms of gender lead us to the conclusion that women are in the majority. (X² (1) = 9.996, p <0.01) At the same time, it was found that respondents with a high level of education had less difficulty answering this question than those with secondary education (X² (4) = 25.135, p <0.01). On the other hand, nationwide (with the exception of the geography where the survey was not conducted), urban respondents were more open than rural respondents (X² (1) = 4.424, p <0.05). In contrast, only 3.1% of those polled were pessimistic about strategic decisions.
Another important direction in this group is the approach to results-based measures to ensure stability in the financial and banking sector. We can characterize public opinion with the following indicators.
Accordingly, 63.1% of respondents are quite efficient, 3.5% mainly inefficient, and significant - 33.4% of respondents said they had difficulty expressing their position on the question. Respondents who positively evaluated the reforms in this area also said that an effective exchange rate policy was in place they are convinced. That is, the correlation analysis also gives a positive result (r = 0.542, p <0.01). Respondents who highly valued the stability measures in the financial and banking sector also significantly agreed with the idea of ensuring food security (r = 0.480, p <0.01). However, the strength of this relationship is lower than the strength of the relationship with the stability of monetary policy. An interesting point is that among respondents, those with higher and vocational education had less difficulty answering than those with secondary education (X² (4) = 13.620, p <0.01). The analysis also suggests that a large proportion of respondents who had difficulty answering this question took the same position in answering the question of maintaining a stable exchange rate (X² (4) = 0.346, p <0.01).
During COVID-19 pandemic is deepening, as well as the global oil crisis (a sharp drop in oil prices), the study of public attitudes to large-scale work on food security is of strategic importance. Public opinion on this issue is not only socio-economic but also important in the context of security.
Thus, 89.2% of respondents highly appreciate the state policy in this direction, highly appreciating the President's sensitive approach to the issue and its constant focus.
The indicator is once again a clear manifestation of the public's opinion that the interests of citizens are determined in the socio-economic course of the President. While 2.4% of respondents assessed the work in this area as ineffective, 8.4% of respondents found it difficult to respond in this context.
Based on public opinion, we can say that even against the background of the global economic stagnation, Mr. President's speech in this direction based on national economic interests is highly appreciated by the respondents.
One of the highlights of the new stage of socio-economic reforms implemented nationwide and acted as the central determinant of the Azerbaijani citizen is the regular informing of the general public on all stages of the reform process by state institutions operating in this field. This is characterized by the transition to a higher level of efficiency in the field of crisis communication.
While 87.8% of respondents consider the activity in this direction to be significantly effective, a very small part - 2.6% of the respondents - evaluated the work done inefficiently. In general, 9.4% of respondents said they had difficulty answering. Respondents of the researched areas were more active in this area than their urban and rural counterparts (t (644) = 2.504, p <0.05). From another perspective, we see that respondents who have difficulty answering this question are more likely to live in settlements and villages (X² (2) = 21.413, p <0.01). Generally, the majority of respondents had difficulty answering the sub-components of the question, the strategic steps taken by the country's leadership in the context of the current global economic recession and the positive expectations from the economic situation after the April 2019 reforms. we can note that the results are indexed.
International experience also shows that socio-economic reforms show their results after a certain period.
On the other hand, when we evaluate those who have difficulty answering from the socio-demographic perspective, we see that women and people with low levels of education come to the fore.
The four sub-questions addressed to the respondents in this question block can be considered as a factor when approached from the framework of factor analysis. The factor loads of the mentioned questions are between 0.750 and 0.818. One estimated factor explains 61% of the variability. It should be noted that the reliability of the factor is also high (Cronbach's Alpha = 0.773).
Based on the responses of the respondents to the sub-questions in the socio-economic context, we can note the high confidence of the respondents in the course of the President's socio-economic policy as a "latent factor". This factor also confirms the strategic importance of the course of socio-economic policy as a sub-index of the Trust Index 2020/1.
One of the issues of concern to the country and the world in recent months is the coronavirus pandemic. The operative steps taken by the President of Azerbaijan at the initial stage of the pandemic measures to prevent the consequences of this problem were praised by the World Health Organization in terms of preventing the spread of the coronavirus compared to other countries.
Establishment of the Operational Headquarters under the Cabinet of Ministers by the order of the President, closure of higher and secondary educational institutions, application of quarantine restrictions, and special legislation provision of the basics by the Milli Majlis, monitoring of the situation about coronavirus - the implementation of all these processes under the control of the President was highly evaluated by the citizens. Following the example of the President, the citizens of this nation began to join the process.
"How do you evaluate the measures taken by the president about coronavirus?" The majority of the population is positive about the steps taken. The vast majority of respondents were more positive about the closure of borders with a number of neighboring countries (85.6%), the ban on public events (84%), and the suspension of education (82.4%). It is clear that about 10% of respondents had difficulty expressing their views on these issues. The reason is that the pandemic has not been registered in our country in early March; only the detection of the virus in people from abroad was due to the small number of new infections. Because people had a hard time fully understanding and evaluating the nature of these measures.
Furthermore, some people do not think that such negative effects will occur if the current quarantine regime continues. The main reason why people think so is their beliefs. In any case, they think that the state will support its citizens. In the survey, the majority of respondents (87.8%) believe that the state will support them when they face any problems in the current situation.
Due to the threat of coronavirus, people have increased the need for various drugs (alcohol, masks) to protect against the virus. Against the background of growing demand, some forces tried to take advantage of this opportunity, creating an artificial increase in prices, a "shortage" of these funds. The fact that such cases have caused public condemnation and widespread discussion on social networks was a sign of citizens' dissatisfaction. As soon as the President became aware of the issue, he instructed the law enforcement agencies to take the issue under strict control.
The respondents were asked, "How satisfied are you with the President's reaction to the issues that cause public condemnation from the citizens’ perspective of view?". In general, the vast majority of respondents (92.8%) are satisfied with the President's reaction to the events that led to public condemnation. Thus, a little more than two-thirds of respondents (66.8%) are "completely satisfied" with the reaction of the country's leader to issues that cause public condemnation, 26% are "partially satisfied". These results confirm the importance of citizens' coverage of problems by themselves. Those who are satisfied with the President's reaction to the issues that cause public condemnation from the citizens’ perspective of view are more positive about the activities of the President in certain areas than those who are dissatisfied.
As the level of education rises, citizens are more likely to be dissatisfied with the President's response to issues that cause public condemnation.
The President's reaction to the issues that caused public condemnation is directly related to his awareness of what is happening on the ground. The majority of respondents (88.9%) believe that the President is generally aware of what is happening on the ground. However, his opinion on whether he is aware of it is ambiguous. The proportion of those who chose the answers “fully informed” (44.3%) and “partially informed” (44.6%) was almost the same. Interestingly, about 10% of people think that the president has no information about what is happening on the ground, which is a worrying indicator.
One of the main reasons for the population's opinion is the lack of letters and complaints addressed to the President by citizens, and as a result, their letters go unanswered remains. President Ilham Aliyev also touched upon this issue at the opening session of the 6th convocation Milli Majlis. Thus, he spoke about the importance of having a complaint mechanism, emphasizing the need to further strengthen public control.
Considering that measures have been taken for this purpose, the President noted that the situation in the Presidential Administration has completely changed, people who obstructed it have been fired, and steps have been taken to further improve the work in this direction.
The President's emphasis on these points in his speeches not only created conditions for citizens to be more optimistic about the issue, to complain, and address their problems but also to prevent officials who obstruct this process from doing so. Moreover, he emphasized the importance of public opinion in his speeches, decisions, and civic events. Obviously, the surveys conducted among the population, the publicization of the results of these surveys, the reference of these surveys by the President of the country also cause citizens to think that public opinion, their views, and attitudes are important for the state.
The majority of respondents believe that the President's awareness of what is happening on the ground manifests itself in various ways in his decision-making.
67.5% of respondents believe that the President's awareness of what is happening on the ground is reflected in the steps he has taken to punish officials who commit illegal acts. That is, when the head of state receives information about officials who commit illegal acts, he ensures that the person is punished. The arrest and punishment of the heads of the executive authorities of some regions (Agstafa, Neftchala) by the State Security Service in recent months is a real proof of this.
For almost half of the population (48.7%), the President's awareness of what is happening on the ground in the fight against corruption and personnel reform (43.2%) depends on his decision-making.
Apparently, the majority of citizens believe that the President, when receiving information about what is happening, makes the necessary personnel changes in various forms, including through punishment. We can once again see the importance of public control, which the head of state often emphasizes in his speeches. It is thought-provoking that only one in three respondents (36.7%) stated that the level of awareness of the President is important in solving social problems and responding to them quickly. In general, the vast majority of respondents (95.2%) believe that public opinion plays a role in the dismissal of chief executives by the President. The vast majority of the population (81.8%) is convinced that public opinion has a direct impact on the dismissal of local executive authorities by the President.
Apparently, the majority of citizens believe that the President, when receiving information about what is happening, makes the necessary personnel changes in various forms, including through punishment.
We can once again see the importance of public control, which the head of state often notes in his speeches.
Interestingly, only one in three respondents (36.7%) stated that the level of awareness of the President is important in solving social problems and responding to them quickly.
In general, the vast majority of respondents (95.2%) believe that public opinion plays a role in the dismissal of chief executives by the President. The vast majority of the population (81.8%) is convinced that public opinion has a direct impact on the dismissal of local executive authorities by the President.
The spread of such an opinion among the population can be characterized positively in terms of the President-citizen relationship. Operations by the State Security Service against local executives as part of reforms and anti-corruption policies have raised positive expectations, especially among citizens living in the regions.
In some cases, such views are changing by those who think that the situation will not change, that official arbitrariness will continue. More than half of the respondents (54.4%) think that after these operations, the heads of district executive authorities will refrain from corruption. The respondent is expected to increase the confidence of citizens in the rule of law (50.3%).
These measures reaffirmed the political will of the President to adhere to the principle of "the rule of law", the equality of any high-ranking official before the law, and the fact that no one will be compromised on corruption issues. This increases people's trust in the law and the legal system. It should be noted that 9.4% of respondents have no expectations. This may also indicate that the activities of local executive authorities in some districts are unsatisfactory. Similarly, 9.4% of the citizens believe that the existing principles of punishment will not lead to any fundamental change.
Unfortunately, some heads of executive authorities do not justify the confidence shown to them by the head of state in their activities. Although the President always calls on officials to work transparently, to serve citizens, to improve the welfare of the people, some officials who ignore them continue their negative activities towards citizens.
From this point of view, the dismissal and punishment of officials who do not justify their trust testify to the practical nature of the state policy in this direction. That is why the conduct of operations by the State Security Service in connection with the activities of the executive heads of some regions in recent months has caused a positive reaction from citizens.
The results of the survey also show this. Thus, the majority of respondents (85%) think that these operations have a positive impact on the image of the President. The punishment and dismissal of officials for abuse of office increases confidence that no one can stand in the way of the reforms that have begun.
One of the main features of the personnel reforms launched in 2019 was the "rejuvenation policy". The replacement of the older generation in government with the younger staff has not only been supported by citizens but also increased their positive expectations.
The absolute majority of respondents (91%) recently approved the appointment of younger staff to local executive bodies to one degree or another (75.2% “very good”, 15.8% good ”).
6.1% of respondents' neutral view may be due to the fact that their perceptions of the activities of young CEOs have not yet been formed. These indications show that more than 90% of the country's population has recently been involved in the appointment of younger staff to local executive bodies more or less positive, and 6.1% are neutral. Based on this indication, we can say that the population has a positive attitude to personnel changes in local executive authorities. The attitude to the appointment of representatives of the younger generation is also high.
In other words, the people hope that the renewal, especially at the expense of relatively young staff, will be in the interests of the population, and the new ones will be better than before. At the same time, it should be noted that this is also an expectation of public opinion. Thus, the essence of personnel policy is not just "rejuvenation", but also the observance by the head of state of the criteria of service to the people. The dissolution of the Milli Majlis of the fifth convocation and the holding of new early elections were a key part of the radical reforms. It should be noted that during the parliamentary elections, the President called on young people to be active and nominate their candidacies. The fact that young people have a sufficient place in the newly formed Milli Majlis is an indication of the state's support for youth representation in the legislature as well as in the executive branch. The fifth convocation Due to the inadequate response of the Milli Majlis to the new course of reforms, and in some cases the delay of this process, a new convocation of the parliament was needed and a new composition was formed.
A significant number of respondents (63.9%) think that the new composition of the Milli Majlis can support the President's course of reforms. Another important point is that 21.1% of respondents have difficulty commenting on this. This shows that a significant number of people do not have enough information about the new composition of the Milli Majlis or need some time to form an opinion.
Reforms in power/security structures began in June 2019 and continued in the following months. Respondents believe that the President's personnel changes in the security agencies will have a positive impact on the effectiveness of general reforms (79.5%), strengthening national security (85.5%), and public confidence in the security agencies (81.9%). Another point to note is that 10.5% of respondents commented on the effectiveness of these changes in general reforms, and 8.7% on public safety.
Despite the fact that citizens have this feeling, the ongoing radical reforms, personnel changes in the structures, there are still some negative situations in some places. Even though successful continuation of the reforms, there is still a need for radical reforms and personnel changes in some areas. "In what areas do we need more reforms?" Based on the answers to the question, we can say that the executive branch
Reforms in the judiciary (53.7%) and the judiciary (45.7%) are most needed by the population.
Among the people who consider that reforms in the executive branch are important, those who do not trust the executive branch prevail is (X² (9) = 22.122, p <0.01). This result suggests that the activities of local executive authorities are still unsatisfactory and not effectively evaluated by citizens.
The fact that about half of the respondents also expressed the need for judicial reform reveals the information about citizens expect reforms in this area as well. As noted above, trust in the courts is not high among the population (49%). The relationship between these two views, those who want judicial reform are predominant among those who do not trust the judiciary (X² (9) = 24.325, p <0.01). Compared to the other two areas, respondents are less in need of legislative reform (24.5%). This may be due to the radical reforms in the legislature in 2020. Also, a significant number of respondents believe that the new parliament will support the President's reform course.
This point can be explained by the fact that public opinion has expectations for a new parliament. Although staff changes in many executive bodies indicate that this process is satisfactory, there is still a great need for these reforms in some districts. While citizens have high expectations from the reforms launched in the executive branch, they have hope and confidence that this process will continue.
Most of those who believe that the new composition of the Milli Majlis can support the President's course of reforms believe that there is a greater need for reforms at the executive level. Based on this and other questions in the survey, we can say that although the February 9 parliamentary elections gave people a mostly positive impression of the new composition of the Milli Majlis, public opinion about the executive branch is ambiguous and new changes are desirable. The fact that the President is among the people, and always prefers simplicity in his way of life and behavior, is also a message to officials not in words but in deeds.
The majority of respondents (94.2%) believe that the President is an example to officials with his simplicity and modesty. The behavior of the President at many events and meetings, sincere conversations, listening to people to the end form this opinion among citizens. Khoshbakht Yusifzadeh's sincere behavior at the 90th-anniversary event, emphasizing the facts of his work, sitting in a simpler chair with young people during the opening of the "ASAN Service" Center, speaking about respect for elders in his speeches and showing it in practice. His recommendations and many other examples have created the image of a "simple and sincere President" in people's minds.
Obviously, the President and his family members save our national traditions and prefer simplicity in their lives from photos shared at certain holiday events and birthday parties on their social media accounts. The survey and field observations of the staff show that while people are satisfied with the President's contact with the people, they are more dissatisfied with the officials, their negative behavior towards people, and their reluctance to contact the people.
According to 77.6% of respondents, "the President's instructions in his speeches to all government officials to serve the people and be close to the people" is the most influential factor in the President's reputation, which is the importance of punishing officials and personnel changes for citizens.
According to the degree of influence, the next factors are "resolute behavior towards officials who do not serve the people" (71.8%), "being among the people" (71.6%), and "being simple and modest" (71.3%). Based on the results, we can say that personnel changes and the President's closeness to the citizen are the main factors that have a positive impact on his reputation. The dynamics of citizens' trust and confidence in the president, it is clear that there is an increase in this direction. Thus, if in the confidence index "President's activity in public opinion" conducted by STM in October, this figure was 54.6%, in March it was 58.1%. In general, based on the indicators for March 2020, we can say that the absolute majority of respondents (94.5%) trust and trust the President.
Observations in the regions and Baku also show that along with high confidence and trust in the President, there is a general agreement on his activities. This is reflected in the recent social reforms under the leadership of the President, especially in the last three months.
The results of several studies conducted by STM showed that the population receives information mainly from television, and then from social networks and websites. The results of this survey also show that citizens receive information about the activities of the President on television (81.1%) and social networks (41.7%). This indicator once again confirms that television is the main source of informing the population about the activities of the President. There is also a need for television to provide more efficient, comprehensive information in this area.
Not only the news but also the broadcasting of certain programs related to the activities of the President on the most-watched TV channels can be effective in terms of informing the citizen other issues is the low use of the President.az website (7.3%) and the President's social network accounts (8.4%).
Demographic analysis of the respondents shows that people with higher education and those living in Baku mostly visit both addresses.
It would be more effective for citizens to get information straight from the source itself - the President's social network accounts - rather than from other social networks.
RESULTS
1. During the first quarter of 2020, President Ilham Aliyev's domestic and foreign
Analysis of the attitude of public opinion to his policy activities, the results of a survey conducted by the President on the "Confidence Index" shows that public confidence in President Ilham Aliyev has increased because of his correct policy, the welfare and prosperity of our people. Support for a course of reforms aimed at further improvement continued on an upward trajectory.
2. In comparison with other branches of government (legislative and judicial), the absolute majority of respondents (94.7%) trust the President.
3. Those who say “I trust the President” make up the absolute majority of respondents- 46.2% of people trust the local executive power and 49% trust the court. Of these three branches of government, the least reliable is the executive branch. This suggests that the country's population trusts the President more than other government agencies.
4. The President's activities in the military, political and socio-economic spheres were evaluated positively by the vast majority. Furthermore, the absolute majority of respondents evaluates the President’s activities in the fields of military building and modernization of the armed forces (96%) and foreign policy (95%) more positively.
5. Comparing the results of the survey conducted in 2019 with the new results that over the past few months, the attitude of the population to the activities of the President in various fields has improved. Another important point is that those who evaluate the activities of the President in various directions "very well” increased significantly.
6. It indicates relatively low level of public opinion on the level of anti-corruption in the socio-economic sphere - issues that directly affect or feel the impact on the daily lives of the population. It is also sign that issues such as unemployment and the improvement of the social situation should remain one of the main goals of public policy in the near future.
7.In his speech at the Munich Security Conference in February 2020 (as a continuation of the President's speech at the Valdai International Discussion Club), exposing the Armenian Prime Minister and the policy of aggression with historical truths had a positive effect on public opinion and increased confidence in restoring our territorial integrity.
8. The President's speech at the Munich Security Conference was assessed as another weakness of the Armenian Prime Minister (56.7%), another diplomatic victory of the President (48.5%), a new stage in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict (44.3%).
9. A significant part of the respondents (75.9%) consider the targeted measures taken to keep the exchange rate stable against the background of volatility in world oil markets to be significantly effective.
10. Result-based measures to ensure stability in the financial and banking sector in the country, respectively, 63.1% of respondents consider quite effective.
11. At a time when the Covid-19 pandemic is deepening, as well as the global oil crisis (a sharp drop in oil prices), large-scale food security measures have been taken in the country and the work is highly valued by citizens (87.8%).
12. 87.8% of respondents assess the effectiveness of periodic public awareness of the relevant government agencies on socio-economic reforms.
13. 89.2% of respondents highly appreciate the state policy in this direction, highly appreciating the President's sensitive approach to the protection of the national gene pool, social health and further strengthening of health, and his constant focus on it.
14. The absolute majority of respondents (93%) positively assess the measures taken by the state in the early stages of coronavirus.
15. The vast majority of respondents (87.8%) believe that the state will support them in the event of a pandemic. The respondents were more positive about the steps taken to combat the pandemic - the introduction of quarantine restrictions, the closure of borders with a number of neighboring countries (85.6%), the ban on mass events (84%) and the suspension of education (82.4%).
16. In general, the vast majority of respondents (92.8%) support the President's response to events that have led to public condemnation.
17. The majority of respondents (88.9%) believe that the President is generally aware of what is happening on the ground. However, opinions on whether or not they are informed are ambiguous - the proportion of those who choose “fully informed” (44.3%) and “partially informed” (44.6%) is almost the same.
18. It is thought provoking that 10% of respondents believe that the President is completely unaware of what is happening on the ground. Based on this result, we can see once again the importance of the opinion of the head of state on the importance of public control, which he often emphasizes in his speeches. The results of the survey also suggest that there is a need to reconsider and improve the processes taking place on the ground and the mechanisms for bringing existing problems to the highest instances. For example, the failure of citizens' appeals to reach the appropriate address is one of the main problems in this regard.
19.According to the respondents, the President's awareness of what is happening on the ground is mainly in the decision-making process in punishing officials who commit illegal acts (67.5%), manifests itself in the fight against corruption (48.7%) and personnel reform (43.2%).
20. It is thought provoking that only one in three respondent’s states that the President's level of awareness is important in solving social problems and responding to them quickly.
21. The vast majority of the population (81.8%) is “absolutely convinced” that public opinion has a direct influence on the dismissal of local executive heads by the President. The total number of those who hold this opinion is 95.2%. The spread of such an opinion among the population can be characterized as positive in terms of the President-citizen relationship.
22. In general, more than two-thirds of respondents are fully satisfied with the leader's response to issues of public condemnation, while a quarter are partially satisfied. According to the results, people think that the president's actions are sensitive to public opinion.
23. Operations by the State Security Service against local executives as part of its reform and anti-corruption policies have raised positive expectations, especially among citizens living in the regions. In some cases, those who think that the situation will not change and that the arbitrariness of officials will continue are changing. People see such steps as a key branch of reform and want it to continue.
24. Moreover, the punishment of officials who do not justify the confidence of the President in this way shows that the reforms are irreversible and consistent, and that public service is the only criterion. In addition, everyone is equal before the law. People's faith in the rule of law is growing.
25. More than half of the respondents (54.4%) think that after these operations, the heads of district executive authorities will refrain from corruption. There is an expectation that confidence in the rule of law will increase (50.3%).
26. The majority of respondents (85%) believe that the operations carried out by the State Security Service have a positive effect on the image of the President. Officers abusing their positions show that no one can hinder the reforms that have begun with punishment and dismissal.
27. Personnel changes are one of the main factors that have a positive impact on the reputation of the President in the eyes of the majority of citizens.
28. The vast majority of respondents (91%) have recently rated the appointment of younger staff in local executive bodies to one degree or another (75.2% “very good”, 15.8% “mostly good”). While a significant proportion of respondents, (63.9%) thought that the new composition of the Milli Majlis could support and contribute to the President's reform course, 21.1% of respondents found it difficult to comment.
29. Respondents believe that the President's personnel changes in the security agencies will have a positive impact on the effectiveness of general reforms (79.5%), strengthening national security (85.5%), and public confidence in the security agencies (81.9%).
30. "In what areas do we need more reforms?" Based on the answers to the question, we can say that reforms in the executive branch (53.7%) and the judiciary (45.7%) are most needed by the population. Among those who say that reforms in the executive branch are important, those who do not trust the executive branch prevail. This result suggests that the activities of local executive authorities are still unsatisfactory and not effectively evaluated by citizens.
31. The fact that about half of the respondents also mentioned the need for judicial reform shows that citizens expect reforms in this area as well. As mentioned above, trust in the courts is not very high among the population (49%). Between these two views, those who do not trust the judiciary dominate those who want judicial reform.
32. Respondents are less aware of the need for legislative reform (24.5%) than in the other two areas. This may be due to the radical reforms in the legislature in 2020. In addition, a significant number of respondents believe that the new composition of parliament will support the President's course of reforms. This point, as noted above, can be explained by the fact that public opinion has expectations about the new composition of parliament.
33. According to 77.6% of the respondents, "The President's instructions in his speeches to all government officials to serve the people and be close to the people" is the factor that has the greatest impact on the reputation of the President. This shows that the punishment of officials and personnel changes are of great importance for citizens.