The Global Crossroads: A Year of Conflicts and Questions

As we navigate the turbulent waters of 2025, the sheer complexity of global events defies simplistic analysis. Over the past five years—and especially in the critical juncture of 2024—we have seen the resurgence of conflicts once thought dormant, alongside the escalation of unresolved tensions. From the civil war in Syria to the ever-intensifying Russian invasion of Ukraine, these crises underscore a deeply fractured global order.

With the results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election bringing Donald Trump back to power, many awaited a clear trajectory for these ongoing conflicts. Indeed, certain developments have already been influenced. The Baath regime in Syria reached a turning point, with the fall of Assad marking the culmination of years of civil strife. However, far from resolving regional instability, Israel’s incursion into Syrian territory further inflamed tensions, intersecting with the protracted Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Last year, I spoke with former British diplomat, EU Ambassador  James Moran about the Middle East. His observation remains striking: “You can never draw conclusions about who is doing what in the Middle East with a quick and instant reading.” This holds truer than ever.

The Ukraine Dilemma: A War Without End?

Of all the crises dominating global discourse, the Russia-Ukraine war remains the focal point. With Trump’s return to the White House, there are hopes that a resolution may be within reach. Even the politically disengaged are clamoring for peace, given the global economic strain caused by the war. Yet the ultimate fate of Ukraine—Europe’s largest country by area—remains shrouded in uncertainty. Questions persist: Will Ukraine emerge as a sovereign and intact state? Or will the conflict carve out irreversible divisions?

During my research last year, I consulted prominent think tanks to gauge their perspectives in Central Europe. Among the voices I encountered was Sebastian Schäffer, director of the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM). Schäffer’s assessment was grim: the conflict, he argued, was unlikely to conclude quickly. A year later, a former Russian representative to NATO echoed this view, suggesting Russia’s strategy revolves around prolonging the war, contrary to conventional wisdom.

To unpack these developments further, I turned to John Lough, a British expert on Russia and Eurasia and former NATO representative to Moscow. Lough, whose career spans pivotal moments in post-Cold War geopolitics, offered a sobering analysis of potential U.S. influence on the conflict.

“President-elect Trump and his team appear keen to push for negotiations, potentially forcing both Russia and Ukraine to the table,” Lough explained. “While both sides are exhausted and seeking a resolution, they remain deeply entrenched in their positions. This is where the challenge lies.”

Lough noted that the Trump administration might leverage its position by either cutting off arms supplies to Ukraine to pressure Kyiv into concessions or bolstering Ukraine with advanced weaponry should Russia refuse to yield. However, he warned of the dangers of a temporary ceasefire: “A lull could allow Russia to regroup, posing a significant threat to Ukraine’s long-term security.”
The broader implications for European security also loom large. Lough suggested that a peacekeeping force in Ukraine—potentially involving European nations—could emerge as a solution, though he doubted direct U.S. involvement in such an initiative.

A Fractured NATO?

Lough’s skepticism about Trump’s approach is well-founded. The president’s social media rhetoric has already strained relations with key allies, from provocative statements about Greenland to thinly veiled criticisms of Canada. Such behavior raises doubts about the U.S.’s commitment to its alliances, including NATO.
Reflecting on past peace efforts, Lough highlighted the failures of the Minsk agreements of 2014-2015: “Poorly drafted and poorly implemented deals will not lead to lasting peace. Any new agreement must be comprehensive and acceptable to both sides.”

When asked about NATO’s long-term role in ensuring Ukraine’s security, Lough posed a critical question: “If NATO is not the solution, then what is?” He also expressed concerns about NATO’s future under a Trump presidency, noting the potential for fragmentation within the Alliance.

A Changing Geopolitical Landscape

Lough’s reflections extended beyond Ukraine to his time as NATO’s representative in Moscow during the mid-1990s. “It was a different era,” he reminisced. “In the aftermath of the Soviet Union’s collapse, Moscow appeared open to engaging with the West. For instance, Boris Yeltsin maintained close ties with leaders like Bill Clinton. At one point, Russian officials even invited NATO to explain its role to the Russian public—a notion unimaginable today.” 

However, even then, tensions simmered beneath the surface. While figures like Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev advocated closer ties with the West, Russia’s military establishment harbored deep suspicions of NATO. These divisions set the stage for the adversarial relationship that prevails today.
Lough also addressed a recurring narrative: Russia’s purported interest in joining NATO during the early post-Soviet years. “While Putin often references this idea, it was never entirely realistic. Membership would have required significant reforms to align Russia’s military and decision-making structures with NATO principles,” he said. “Ultimately, the geopolitical changes and NATO’s eastward expansion made sustained cooperation untenable.”

Bridging Divides in an Uncertain World
Lough’s insights serve as a reminder of the complexities underpinning today’s geopolitical landscape. The challenges demand nuanced and informed approaches. As the world braces for another year of uncertainty, one thing remains clear: lasting peace and stability will require not only visionary leadership but also the willingness to make difficult concessions.

Links to mentioned interviews : 

1. Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran and Hamas relations, former EU Ambassador James Moran - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J23oEuUhnuY&t=14s&ab_channel=STMTV 
2.  Russo-Ukrainian war, EU influence in Eastern Europe - Director of IDM, DRC Sebastian Schaffer - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOin3pIGCLE&t=44s&ab_channel=STMTV
3. Global Bridges: John Lough on the Russo-Ukrainian War and future of the NATO - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAXDP4N51nM&t=175s&ab_channel=STMTV